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Quanta Bits: The SaaS Reckoning

Private equity spent trillions betting enterprise software was untouchable. AI and rising rates are proving them wrong. Plus: 96% of companies miss AI ROI by spending on tools instead of people, Mercor's agents failed at consulting work, marketing teams are now optimizing for chatbots, and why Japan's biggest toilet company is an AI stock.

February 21, 2026

This week's major theme: AI is disrupting the enterprise software model and the build vs. buy calculus with it. PE firms that paid 20x+ revenue multiples for niche software companies are stuck with leveraged portfolios losing value. $2 trillion wiped from software market cap. The big infrastructure players (Salesforce, Oracle, ServiceNow) will survive, but the mid-market squeeze is real.

Also in this issue:

  • The Wire — 96% of companies miss AI ROI by spending 80% on tech and 20% on people instead of the reverse. Mercor's $2B AI agents failed at real consulting work. Marketing teams pivoting to optimize for ChatGPT, not just Google. And Toto (yes, the toilet company) is an AI stock.
  • Quanta Lab — The token bill is the new cloud bill: hitting Anthropic Max limits within days, testing local model offloading. Plus why AI chatbots surfacing your old content is a governance problem nobody owns yet.
  • After Hours — Catching up with the 28 Days/Weeks/Years Later series before The Bone Temple drops.

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